(23 Jul – 29 Jul 2007) Thailand – Government Weathers Violent Protest

An anti-government protest sponsored by the United Front of Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) on 22 July resulted in about 270 injuries – 200 police and 70 protestors. This was the first reported demonstration violence associated with the September 19^th 2006 coup that brought down the Thaksin government. The protesters who numbered around 5,000 gathered in front of Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanona’s residence Sunday afternoon. Prem, both a former Army Commander and Prime Minister, is widely believed to have been one of the driving forces behind the coup, obliquely taking on then Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in a number of speeches and at closed door meetings with Army leaders. The 86 year-old Prem as the President of the Privy Council is very close to HRH King Bhumibol Adulyadet and is widely regarded as having been the key player in garnering the monarch’s essential backing that allowed the military to launch September’s coup. The protest violence apparently started as police made a decision to move in and arrest several demonstration leaders making speeches from atop a pick-up truck. As the arrest attempt failed due to resistance on the part of the demonstrators, people in the crowd began throwing bottles and other objects at the retreating police. The police responded by making repeated forays to disperse the protestors, which resulted in street fighting leading to the injuries. The crowd eventually dispersed evidently upon hearing rumors that Army forces were preparing to intervene. (The Army’s reputation was deeply stained in 1992 after opening fire on pro-democracy demonstrators. The official death toll from these events stands at 44 killed but there are still 100 more persons listed as missing.) In the aftermath of the violent demonstration at Prem’s residence, police have detained nine leaders of the UDD. Of the nine, only one, Jaran Ditthapichai is out on bail. The other eight remain incarcerated.

(Comment – The post-coup government of Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont appears for the time being to have successfully weathered the outcome of last Sunday’s violence. The coup itself has been widely supported by Thailand’s middle class, who in addition to holding the monarchy in the highest esteem, also retain a deep respect for retired general Prem whose entire life has been devoted to public service, first in the Army, then in government, and now as the leader of the King’s most trusted circle of advisors. Over the last few months, demonstrations have occurred on a regular basis but have not generated the kind of momentum that would indicate an erosion of the post-coup government’s base of support. Prime Minister Surayud backed by the military has articulated a clear roadmap for a return to democracy. The first step is a constitutional referendum scheduled for 19 August followed by promised elections before the year’s end. At this point, the majority of Thailand’s population seems to be holding a wait and see attitude, giving the current government the benefit of the doubt. There are, however, several wildcards in the picture – Thakin’s huge popularity in the north and northeast, especially among many of Thailand’s rural poor, who saw him as sincerely devoted to improving their quality of life. Secondly, Thakin himself, who even with a substantial portion of his wealth frozen, has access to a considerable sum of money that he can use as political muscle even from exile. And lastly, the disbanding of Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai Party has left a political vacuum with many of his associates, party members, and those who formerly held political office as part of his administration out of work, bitter, and disenfranchised. With the key protest leaders in jail, the Surayud government will have to move with caution to ensure that they do not become a lightning rod for further turbulence and political expression that will turn violent. Further street violence on a large scale will have a destabilizing effect on the post-coup government, likely leading to martial law. From there, the apparent danger will be the loss of middle class support, thus causing the plans for a timely return to democracy to quickly unravel.) [slr]