(03-09 September 2007) Indonesia – Putin Comes a Calling: The Russian Arms Deal

The first visit to Indonesia by a Russian political leader since Nikita Khrushchev in 1960 sets the stage for expanded relations between the two countries and resulted in several agreements, including a key one billion USD’s Russian loan, repayable over the next 15 years, for the purchase of defense articles. Under the agreement, the Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI) will receive two Kilo-class submarines, 20 amphibious light tanks, and 15 helicopters. This purchase comes on the heels of an agreement signed earlier in the year valued at over 300 million USD’s for Russian Sukhoi aircraft: three SU-30’s and three SU-27’s. Additionally, the Indonesians also received two SU-27’s in 2003. Prior to the coup that toppled President Sukarno in 1967, the Soviet Union had a solid military to military relationship with Indonesia and provided them at the time with significant amounts of military hardware including fighter aircraft and bombers as well as naval vessels. Concerning the latest procurement of Russian military equipment, Indonesian presidential spokesman, Dino Pati Djalal was quoted by Voice of America News on 6 September stating, “We want to diversify the sources of our equipment. Russia is offering us a generous package, and Russia also does not attach conditions whatsoever. Russia is all business and does not attach any political conditions and that is the way we like it, and that is why we took up the offer.” Russia has also made significant sales of military equipment to Malaysia over the last 10 years including MIG-29’s, SU-30’s, helicopters, and infantry weapons systems. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be spearheading an effort by Russia to start flexing it muscles in order to begin strategically countering United States influence globally, so the arms sale should come as no surprise as it seems almost a perfect confluence of Russian and Indonesian national interests.

(Comment - The Russian state, now with expanding capital reserves from its growing oil and gas industries, is in a position to start working itself out of the doldrums that left Moscow's foreign policy in Asia stagnant since the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989. Its arms sales in the region are greater than any other nation, with significant sales to China and India keeping those numbers ahead of the United States, the second largest weapon supplier of defense articles. The Indonesia military suffered through a six year U.S. arms embargo brought about by the turmoil in East Timor. Since the fall of Sukarno up until 1999, the U.S., which saw Jakarta as a security bulwark against China, was the most prominent supplier of weaponry to the Indonesia, and when the 1999 embargo went into effect, it effectively hamstrung TNI, especially in the area of obtaining spare parts for its fleet of U.S. origin aircraft. Although the embargo has been partially lifted, the lesson it provided to the Indonesian leadership will not be soon forgotten.  The Indonesians continue to face intense U.S. Congressional scrutiny in the area of human rights and their military is closely monitored creating a seemingly endless irritant to Indonesian politicians and generals. This is what makes the Russian deal so appealing – no politics involved, no human rights issues, no restrictions on usage. However, the lesson that the Indonesians must also consider is that Russian military aircraft have historically not performed well when pitted against similar western platforms. Also, the Russians have a reputation for providing a very thin and unreliable maintenance and spare parts package that often renders their supplied aircraft and navel vessels combat ineffective for long periods of time. Although diversification of military equipment will mitigate the impact of a future embargo, or of maintenance/spare parts issues rendering an entire capability not operationally ready, it has the negative impact of complicating logistics and support. Thus, Jakarta needs to carefully develop a long-range strategic acquisition plan that balances the need for a diverse inventory, yet at the same time, carefully factor in supply and maintenance considerations. [slr]