News and Analysis, Thailand – Still No Answers to the New Year’s Bombings, 06 Jan 07

The search for answers as to the persons or organization behind the New Year’s Eve bombings continues, and so far, there is no evidence that would tie an individual or group to any of the explosions. The post-coup government of retired general Surayud Chulanont is adamantly firm in its accusations that supporters of ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra are to blame but has brought no concrete evidence forward to support these claims. After a week of hoaxes and scares, rumors of a second coup, and a government statement to Parliament that future attacks are likely, political tension in Bangkok remain elevated. Rumors, emanating from military and government sources, are starting to center around former military commander and one time Prime Minster Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, who is aligned with Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai (TRT) Party, as the mastermind behind the bombings. Meanwhile, Thaksin from China, faxed a hand written statement condemning the attacks, denying any involvement, and blaming southern separatists. (Comment – It still appears highly unlikely that the attacks were carried out by southern Muslim separatists, and because of the nature of the attacks, the explosive devices were almost assuredly placed by supporters in the military and police of former Prime Minster Thaksin. This does not, however, mean that Thaksin had foreknowledge or any direct involvement with the attacks. The current government continues to struggle in their efforts to bring any evidence whatsoever to light that would support this theory, and the more time that passes without firm evidence, the greater the political fallout will be for the Surayud administration. The government is now in something of a quandary. Even if seemingly credible evidence is brought forward soon, there will be those in the Thaksin camp who will claim it is manufactured and designed solely to assail the former Prime Minister. They will also argue that this is a means to justify the military’s continued use of martial law in many parts of country, and a rational to postpone scheduled milestones for the reinstitution of democracy. Without strong evidence, the government is faced with the option of arresting key Thaksin supporters and persons presumed to be involved with the attacks, or with initiating negotiations with the Thaksin camp, or with Thaksin directly, to ensure that there are no further attacks occur. As it stands now, the explosions seem to have had their intended impact – to call into question the justifications and wisdom of the coup and to discredit and weaken the Surayud government. The cost, however, is heavy, not only for the evolution of Thai democracy, but in the loss of human life and limb.) [slr]