News and Analysis - Thailand – Prime Minister Surayud Holds His Own but Pressure is Mounting, 01 April 2007

Thailand:  On Wednesday, Council of National Security (CNS) Chairman General Sonthi Boonyaratkalin, the leader of the 19 September coup that removed elected Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, announced that he had proposed to PM Surayud that Surayud invoke emergency rule to quell an increasing number of protests against the government. The government is being squeezed between two opposing forces: on one side, supporters of deposed PM Thaksin who feel that Thaksin was unjustly removed from power and want to retain somewhat of a hold on the political power that they once held, and on the other side, members of the Campaign for Popular Democracy who believe that the government has not done enough to purge the bureaucracy of former Thaksin associates and Thai Rak Thai party members. PM Surayud publicly refused General Sonthi’s request for the implementation of emergency measures remarking that the current situation did not warrant that move. He was quoted in the International Herald Tribune (29 March) as stating, “I gave my opinion [to General Sonthi] that if the situation does not constitute an emergency that jeopardizes the stability of the country, we cannot use that law.”  This was the first public fissure between the government of PM Surayud and the CNS. Although he is facing mounting discontent from multiple directions, Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont this week demonstrated that Thailand’s post-coup government remains committed to meeting the future milestones they have placed to reestablish democracy. He reinforced that the timetable for a return to democracy remains on pace, announcing that the referendum to approve Thailand’s rewritten constitution would be held sometime in September and that national elections would take place in December. He also hinted that in conjunction with the constitutional referendum, he was considering lifting the ban on political activity.

(Comment – PM Surayud’s leadership has been severely tested since assuming the premiership. His soft approach to the Southern Islamic insurgency has thus far failed to make tangible progress, anti-Thaksin advocates have accused him of not taking decisive action against Thaksin himself or his supporters, Western governments have pushed him to revoke martial law in all provinces and to reestablish open and free political activity, while the CNS and certain factions within the military want to exert tighter control over the political environment to ensure that the Thai Rak Thai or its successor party does not resurrect itself as a potent political force that can challenge them in upcoming national elections. There is a undercurrent of tension running among Thai leaders concerning the threat of potential mass protests against the government and the CNS that would destabilize the country and introduce a period of political uncertainly in which the outcome would impossible to predict. There is little chance that even if such an event occurred, Thai society and its long standing bureaucratic institutions would become unhinged, but the stakes are high for those who planned and executed the coup in September, as popular anger could be quickly directed at them. Raising the stakes and complicating the situation is the fact the HRH King Bhumibol is widely seen as having given his full support to the coup and that a failure of the post-coup government could have the potential to reflect poorly on the monarchy as an institution, something that is a factor that all sides and factions will have to consider as they plan their strategies for the next eight months until scheduled elections are held. Finally, the fallout of PM Surayud’s public disagreement with General Sonthi and the CNS may cause the CNS to look at ways to either replace Surayud or curtail his power. [slr]