News and Analysis - Thailand: Hints of Amnesty in the South as the Situation Becomes Increasingly Complex (29 Apr 2007)

The death toll in Southern Thailand since 2004 has reportedly breached the 2,000 mark, and there are no indications that the rate of violent death is going to abate any time in the near future. Two recent attacks on mosques further demonstrate that the conflict continues to evolve, drawing an increasingly armed Buddhist element into the fray. Early Saturday, a mosque was hit by gunfire as about 20 Muslims were conducting their prayers – no one was harmed in the attack; however, later that evening, four persons were injured, three seriously, when a rifle grenade was fired against a second mosque in Pattani. This reflects a growing cycle of violence with each new occurrence being justified as retaliation for earlier incidents. These attacks follow events in Bangkok where hundreds of Buddhist monks protested demanding that Buddhism be made the official religion of Thailand in the new constitution, a draft of which was released this week. In regards to religion, the draft constitution, as written, uses language similar to the 1997 constitution, which was abrogated after the 19 September 2006 coup. The 1997 constitution proclaimed that the State will protect all faiths without specific reference to any one religion.

The government, trying to find a soft approach to end the conflict, is discovering that the path is proving increasingly complex as greater numbers of Southern Buddhists are acquiring arms, either through security force sponsored programs, or illegally, and are seemingly taking action on their own outside the mandate of military supported militia forces, such as the Thai Rangers. Concurrently, Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont purportedly responded positively to an initiative postulated by Third Army Commander Lieutenant General Viroj Buacharoon to grant an amnesty program to Southern Thai insurgents along the lines of an effective program in the 1980’s that was implemented to bring members of Thailand’s communist insurgency back into mainstream Thai society. The idea of a general amnesty is still in the conceptual stage and is undergoing debate.

(Comment - With the Buddhist minority in the south taking a more aggressive and militant posture, the picture of the insurgency in Southern Thailand becomes increasingly complex. The government and security forces have already found it extremely difficult to pinpoint just who are the insurgents and in determining the level of organization that exists within the overall movement. Older Southern separatist groups, while still maintaining a following, do not seem to be able to apply much influence over this new generation of militants.  Also, it is probably too soon to implement a general amnesty program, and any comparison with the situation surrounding the Communist insurgency, now three decades old, is fraught with misunderstanding of the events that led up to an amnesty being successfully implemented.  While now is not the time for a general amnesty, some sort of limited amnesty may be possible that overtime could be grown into a more robust program. However, even with a limited program, the devil will be in the details.) [slr]