News and Analysis - Ramos Horta, East Timor’s Next President (13 May 2007)

East Timor:  Wednesday 09 May, about 400,000 voters cast their ballots at over 700 polling stations in East Timor’s direct presidential run-off election between Prime Minister, Jose Ramos-Horta, an independent, and former Prime Minister and FRETILIN Party leader, Francisco “Lu’Olo” Guterres.  Based on the provisional ballot count by the election committee, Ramos-Horta won the election by a wide margin, garnering 69 percent of the vote, versus Guterres’ 31 percent.  This is in contrast to the first round of voting where Guterres gained 29 percent to Ramos-Horta’s 23 percent, with the rest of the votes being split among other opposition candidates. The deciding factor in the run-off election was that Ramos-Horta was able to pick up the vast majority of those opposition votes, while Guterres’ numbers remained relatively unchanged.  With the election committee’s announcement, Guterres conceded defeat.  Javier Pomes Ruiz, head of the European Union’s election observer mission was quoted in the International Herald Tribune (11 May) as stating, “This is the beginning of a multiparty system in East Timor…no one would have believed before that FRETILIN would have won only a quarter of the votes.” The presidential election precedes parliamentary elections scheduled for 30 June that will set the foundation for East Timor’s political environment over the next five years, as well as determine who will become the next Prime Minister. The post of President, Chief of State, is largely ceremonial, but the position does hold veto power over legislation passed by the parliament. Ramos-Horta will be sworn in as East Timor’s second President on 20 May.

(Comment – The commanding position that FRETILIN has held in East Timor since independence in 2002 has been shaken, but they remain the dominant party on the country’s political landscape. In terms of impact and trajectory concerning both East Timor’s domestic and foreign policies, the results of the upcoming parliamentary elections far outweigh this week’s presidential election. There is little chance that any one party, including the National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT), founded by the country’s national hero, Xanana Gusmao, will be able to challenge FRETILIN head-to-head. FRETILIN will almost certainly win the greatest percentage of votes, again likely achieving around 25 percent of the total vote, with the other 75 percent being parceled out among the competing opposition parties. The key will be whether the opposition can unite behind the almost legendary leadership and charisma of Gusmao to put together a majority coalition, with Gusmao at the forefront as Prime Minister. This outcome would toss FRETILIN into an opposition role in the new parliament, and with the recent fissures that have wracked Timorese society over the last six months, the next question will be whether this would lead to another round of instability and violence.  Regardless which party wins out in the end, they will be faced with a myriad of tough issues that will demand immediate attention: an unemployment rate that is over 25 percent, fractured security forces, an underdeveloped economy, corruption, substantial poverty, the wise use of the wealth derived from the Timorese Gap, and how to live in harmony as one people, one nation.