News and Analysis: Philippines: Violence Escalating In South - Is MNLF Cease-Fire Dead? (20 May 2007)

Province of Sulu, Philippines:  The 1996 cease-fire between Manila and MNLF is showing signs of breaking down.  If possible, the security situation in the Philippines is becoming even more complex.  The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) is preparing to step up operations against the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG).  Talk of the operation, however, indicates the Philippine Army is directing some of its attention toward the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF).  The implications could mean an end to the 11-year old peace agreement and move the country back into full insurgency swing.

AFP operations against ASG have continued with MNLF talking of distancing itself from the avowed terrorist group.  AFP was hailed last year for decapitating the leadership of the ASG, a force estimated now of approximately 2,000 soldiers.  The operation reportedly badly damaged the insurgent group and brought a modicum of stability to the violence-prone underdeveloped areas of Sulu province.

Reports are now surfacing that what was widely considered a counter terrorism success is at risk of going badly awry. According to coverage, with US backing, the Philippine Army, under the guise of combating the ASG, started to attack positions held by the MNLF.  Through the 1996 ceasefire agreement the MNLF is allowed to control territory contiguous to areas where the ASG is active in and around Sulu.

The ceasefire deal included provisions for the 56-member Organization of the Islamic Conference to play a role in negotiations toward a final autonomy settlement. However, that part of the agreement was never fully implemented and the MNLF has maintained armed control over territories it considers to be the ancestral homeland of the ethnic Moro.

The unfortunate reality is that after nearly 11 years of relative calm, since mid-April the Philippine Army has renewed armed hostilities with the MNLF, reasserting old government claims that the MNLF is secretly supporting the ASG.

In the press government officials denied that it had launched assaults directly against the MNLF. However, it has been recently reported that the AFP has been engaged in fighting in at least 10 communities in MNLF-controlled areas. According to one international organization monitoring the conflict up to 40 army and MNLF personnel have been killed. Most recently, four MNLF soldiers were killed in a firefight with the Philippine Marine Corps near Sulu's Kalingalan Caluang township on May 8.

Recently, the Philippine Army has accused MNLF commander Ustadz Habier Malik of being a "terrorist", and late April government troops overran his camp in Sulu's Bihtanag area and the rebel leader went underground.

(Comment – Is the cease-fire dead?  Some contend a broken MNLF-government peace deal would threaten to regionalize what until now was a mainly localized conflict against the ASG. The spike in violence has notably coincided with hotly contested elections for governor of Sulu, which were held this week.  Results will be made know this week. The MNLF's founder and chairman, Nur Misuari, contested the electoral seat from prison, where he is being held on rebellion charges dating back to 2001. While the Philippine Army and the US are both apparently convinced that the MNLF is in league with the ASG, it is apparent those allegations are unlikely to wash with the local population.

By opening a new front against the MNLF, international monitors contend, the Philippine Army is at serious risk of reversing any strategic gains. They say Sulu's local population distinctly separates the MNLF's and ASG's agendas, with widespread support for the MNLF's more peaceful quest for a Moro homeland, and less so for the smaller ASG's often violent tactics.

The AFP has relied on a two-pronged strategy to neutralize the ASG, which logistically has been relying on the relative peace in areas controlled by the MNLF. First, improved weapons technology largely from the US has helped the AFP win tactical battles and, secondly, millions of dollars' worth of US-financed development projects have helped win hearts and minds in the war-torn impoverished areas previously controlled by the ASG.

One explanation for the broadening in policy is that the Philippine Army is under constant pressure from both Manila and Washington to show definite results from its counterinsurgency operations. Some cynics have reported that operations with the ASG were simply running out of steam.

Is the cease-fire dead, or dying?  It is yet to be determined, but stability is certainly at greater risk.  Reigniting the embers of dissent within MNLF against the AFP and Manila will no doubt lessen the effectiveness of government operations against the ASG, turn (or harden even more) local sentiment again against Manila, and ultimately challenge President Arroyo’s hold on power.) [scb]