News and Analysis: Philippines – Armed Forces of the Philippines Pressing Islamic Militants on Basilan and Jolo (19 August 2007)

A 10 July ambush of a 1^st Marine Brigade patrol returning from operations to recover abducted Italian priest Giancarlo Bossi caused the deaths of 14 Marines, of which 10 them were beheaded at the hands of the rebels. This ambush, subsequently, set into motion a series of events, political and military, resulting in the Armed Force of the Philippines (AFP), over the last few weeks, posturing some 12,000 troops in Basilan and on the island of Jolo. Since 2001, this is largest number of forces deployed in the area. The deployment includes the temporarily relocation of Army Commander, General Romeo Tolentino to Zamboanga City in Mindanao in his last days before retirement so that he can personally direct operations. The AFP has gone over to the offensive, targeting the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) and renegade factions of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). Thus far, they have met with initial success although taking a high number of casualties. They have reportedly killed key militants including, senior ASG leader Furiji Indama, aka Abu Jihad, and his brother Umair Indama during the pairs’ unsuccessful defense of an ASG camp in the vicinity of Silangkum on Basilan Island, which Philippine troops overran on Saturday after engaging approximately 60-70 guerillas. Some 57 soldiers and militants were reportedly been killed in the fighting around the camp. This success follows on the heels of tactical operations last week on Jolo Island where it is thought that Dulmatin, an Indonesian national and a known Jemaah Islamiyah transnational terrorist, wanted in connection with the 2002 Bali bombings, was wounded in encounters between 7-9 August. Additionally on Jolo, troops are believed to have wounded the new leader of the ASG, Umbra Jumdail (aka Dr. Abu), and to have killed his son, Masdal Jumdail. It was also rumored that key ASG leader, Radullan Sahiron was also wounded in last week’s clashes. U.S. forces assigned to Joint Special Operations Task Force – Philippines have been supporting operations in the southern Philippines and while not directly involved in combat operations have provided training, intelligence, and advisors.

On the political side, mindful of the delicate balance that exists between the Philippine government, the MILF, and the MNLF both of whom the government will be in negotiations with later this month, the former in Kula Lumpur and the latter in Indonesia, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo issued a series of security directives (as reported by the Philippine National Inquirer, 14 August) that outlined the current strategy:

- Keep military operations in Sulu and Basilan firmly under control to minimize civilian casualties.

- Hold urgent talks with the MILF under Malaysian auspices to resolve the Basilan/Sulu situation, making it clear that the government has to secure its forces and areas as part of peace efforts and law enforcement, but will not overrun MILF areas. [It has been reported that the MILF leadership gave the AFP the go ahead to pass through MILF areas to target renegade forces and the ASG.]

- Brief the Organization of Islamic Conference on developments, underlining both the limited military operations and the continuing peace and development efforts, including huge overlays in the 2007 and 2008 budgets for Mindanao, including Basilan and Sulu.

- Harness the Bishops-Ulama Conference and other religious and civil society groups for the peace effort.

- Accelerate development initiatives in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao.

This directive provides the overarching policy foundation for the south in the near term: keeping military operations limited and focused against the ASG and its leaders; continuing civil affairs and development projects in the hope of winning the hearts and minds of the local population; and, maintaining internationally sponsored and supported negotiations. 

Comment: The intent of the strategy is to move decisively against the ASG, while not letting lengthy, hard worked peace initiatives with both the MILF and the MNLF become unhinged, which would result in a serious escalation of the conflict. The complexity of the situation the government faces is troublesome with individual militants, due to family ties and local roots, shifting alliances between the various groups. Additionally, there are renegade factions that have branched out from both the MILF and MNLF that are taking an active part in combat operations against the AFP. The military, backed by the government, does seem to have a clear mandate to go after the ASG. As a result, the ASG chain of command has been severely disrupted with former leader Khadafy Janjalani being killed last September, and his successor Jainal Antel Sali, Jr. (aka Abu Sulaiman) killed in January of this year. With the possible wounding in the last couple of weeks of the next tier of senior leaders, Umbra Jumdail and Radullan Sahiron, the AFP has splintered the ASG and significantly disrupted unity of command. However, understanding that military actions alone cannot win the struggle in the south, the government has paid heed to the advice of external actors who have cautioned them to take a measured approach against militants in light of ongoing negotiations. The next week will be crucial as the MILF and MNLF react to the increased tempo and success of ongoing AFP operations. The Philippine government is hoping to maintain a balance, eliminating the ASG as an effective fighting force, while working towards a lasting peace with the MILF and MNLF. Right now, it appears that they are tipping point as all sides are reassessing their respective strategies in light of the fast moving events of the past two weeks and in preparation of negotiations due to be held in the upcoming week. [slr]