News and Analysis - East Timor – Successful Election but Many Obstacles to Yet Overcome (08 July 07)

The votes have been cast and counted but the die is not set regarding the outcome of East Timor’s 30 June Parliamentary elections. The democratic contest for the 65-seat National Parliament follows on the heels of East Timor’s presidential election, which saw Nobel Peace Prize winner Jose Ramos Horta turn the tables on the ruling FRETILIN Party. FRETILIN, however, handled the defeat graciously and seemed to accept the outcome, turning their focus on the next looming political event – June’s elections. The outcome of the Parliamentary elections demonstrated that FRETILIN still is able to draw more votes than any other party, but not enough to gain a majority in the legislature.

The following is an unofficial breakdown of the percentages of votes received by the major parties along with the number of seats gained (33 seats are needed for a 51 percent majority):

FRETILIN – 29% of the votes; 21 seats

National Congress of Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT) – 24.1%; 18 seats

Coalition of Social Democratic Association of Timor and the Social Democratic Party (ASDT/PSD) – 15.8%; 11 seats

Democratic Party (PD) – 11.3%; 8 seats

National Unity Party (PUN) – 4.5%; 3 seats

The Democratic Alliance (KOTA and PPT) – 3.2%; 2 seats

National Democratic Union of Timorese Resistance (UNDERTIM) – 3.2%; 2 seats

The other parties that competed in the election failed to meet the 3% minimum number of votes required to gain a seat in the Parliament.

For the most part, foreign observers, of which there were approximately 500, declared that the election was relatively peaceful, free, and fair. Former Timorese President Xanana Gusmao the leader of the CNRT is quickly moving to attempt to set up a coalition government with ASDT/PSD and others that would put him in position to be East Timor’s next Prime Minister. It is likely that coalition agreement between the CNRT and several other parties was in place prior to the election. A CNRT lead coalition would place FRETILIN in an opposition role, which its leader, ousted Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri, has already stated that the party was prepared undertake. According to the Associated Press on 5 July, President Ramos Horta issued a statement indicating that he would like to see a government involving all parties without a clearly defined opposition. However, it looks as if this will not be the case and the CNRT with Gusmao at the helm will continue to move forward with its plans to seat a majority in Parliament and to form the new government.

(Comment – To date, FRETILIN has surprised naysayers who believed that if they did not win or perceived that they were not going to win either the Presidential or the Parliamentary elections that the more radial element within the party would resort to violence in an attempt to destabilize the country. The FRETILIN leadership should to be commended on their actions thus far to keep a tight reign on its party faithful. The trend line predicted by most political analysts that FRETILIN would win the most votes but fail to gain the requisite number to achieve a majority in Parliament has proven accurate. It also seems that the most likely outcome, a CNRT led coalition with Gusmao as Prime Minister is going to come to pass. The real question is will a Gusmao led government be able to unite a highly fractured, torn, and fragile democracy. His administration will immediately be faced with a myriad of complex and stubborn issues: extremely high levels of unemployment and underemployment; how to use more than one billion dollars of the oil revenues that are banked in the U.S.; tackling East Timor’s abject poverty; overcoming a national identity crisis that is manifested in an east-west divide, which has resulted in severe gang-related violence; apprehending or negotiating a deal with an influential fugitive military officer, Major Alfredo Reinado, who is wanted by authorities yet who continues to defy them and remains at large; trying to move Asia’s youngest country towards real independence, an independence that does not need to be buttressed by a host of foreign experts, NGO’s, and peacekeepers; to break free of relying on generous amounts foreign financial assistance; balancing its much larger neighbor, Indonesia, and the regional power, Australia; and, returning to their home villages tens of thousands of displaced persons. To overcome even a few of these issues that will face the new East Timorese government, it will take not only Herculean efforts by the new parliamentary members and government officials, discipline from the security forces, but also, maybe most importantly, positive action from FRETILIN the likely opposition party. The role that FRETILIN and its supporters can play, acting as a responsible check and balance to the coalition government will be the decisive factor in the near-term if East Timor is to begin to move away move from the edge of instability to attaining true independence, peace, and prosperity for its conflict weary people.)  [slr]