News and Analysis - East Timor – Presidential Election Requires Runoff (15 Apr 2007)

As expected, none of the eight contenders in 09 April’s direct presidential election garnered enough votes to become East Timor’s next president. According to the election law, if no single candidate gains at least 50 percent of the vote, the top two finishers will compete in a runoff election within 30 days. Although the official results will not be released until 19 April, the initial tally shows FRETILIN’s Francisco Guterres lead the race with approximately 29 percent of the vote, followed by current Prime Minister, Jose Ramos-Horta, an independent candidate, but who is closely tied with the current President Xanana Gusmao, with about 23 percent of the vote. The next closest finisher was the Democratic Party’s Fernando de Araujo with about 19 percent of the vote. While election day was free of violence, it was surrounded by controversy, with every competing political party noting irregularities and flaws. Martinho Gusmao, a spokesman for the National Election Commission (CNE) was quoted by Reuters News Service (13 April) as stating, “Officials at voting polling stations have made grave mistakes and voters did not know how to cast their ballets,” and that there were “several districts, including the capital Dili, where the number of voters who cast their ballots did not tally with the ballot papers.” Ramos-Horta stated that there were also flaws and voting in places was “chaotic.” However, in a media release on 10 April by the Solidarity Observer Mission for East Timor (SOMET), an independent election monitoring organization stated:

“SOMET congratulates the people of Timor-Leste for overcoming obstacles and inexperience to carry out their first national election largely without violence or bias to reflect the will of the voters. Nearly all polling center workers we observed performed ably, impartially and conscientiously. Voters were patient and committed, and nearly all knew how participate in this free and fair democratic election. Our preliminary analysis indicates that the process generally went as intended, notwithstanding some minor irregularities and problems. Given the recent turbulence which shook the confidence of many Timorese in their governmental process, this is a significant accomplishment.”

The runoff election between Guterres and Ramos-Horta is tentatively scheduled for 08 May. The presidential election will be followed by national elections later this year, which will determine the composition of parliament and who will be the next Prime Minister.  

(Comment – Events over the last year have exposed the fragility of Asia’s newest country.  The latest round of violence to befall East Timor grew out of the dismissal of 600 East Timor Defense Force soldiers, which provoked gun battles between competing factions within the security forces, both police and military, and later spread throughout Dili and parts of the countryside resulting in 37 deaths and the displacement of approximately 150,000 people. Violence erupted again in March as Australian forces attempted to re-capture escaped renegade military officer, Major Alfredo Reinado, in a failed raid. Hopefully, the flawed, though peaceful, conduct of the first round of the presidential election points to the beginning of some stability in East Timor’s turbulent politics. Most observers tend to agree that despite all the problems of the 09 April balloting, the will of the voters was expressed. Although FRETILIN’s Guterres earned the highest percentage of votes in the first round of voting, the election advantage now shifts to Ramos-Horta due to his ability to likely gather up the highest number of votes that went to the other six candidates. A Ramos-Horta win would set the groundwork for FRETILIN to become an opposition party for the first time since independence in 2002. The key to stability in this scenario is will FRETILIN be able to restrain its more radical and violent prone followers and allow the democratic process to work in East Timor, a process that may finally bring about the peace and stability that has so long eluded the people of this nascent nation.) [slr]