News and Analysis – Coordinated Bombings follow Thai-Malay Bilateral Talks, 18 Feb 2007

Thailand: At least 28 separate bombs were detonated throughout Southern Thailand, coinciding with the celebration of the Chinese Lunar New Year. At the time of this writing, 6 persons have been reported killed and more than 50 wounded. The explosions occurred not only in the three border provinces of Yala, Pattani, and Narathiwat, but also, in Songkhla Province, extending northward the insurgents zone of operations. Many of the bombings were executed almost simultaneously and targeted bars, gas stations, hotels, a golf course, and a cinema. Several detonations occurred in the border towns of Betong and Sungai Kolok where Malaysian and Singaporean tourists frequent due to the wide variety of loosely regulated entertainment establishments.

The bombings follow a visit earlier in the week by Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi to meet with senior Thai government and military officials including H.E. King Bhumipol, Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont, and Army Commander and Chairman of the Council for National Security, Sonthi Boonyaratkalin.  The focus of much of the meetings was on the issues facing Thailand’s south. PM Abdullah was quoted in the Bangkok Post as saying, “Southern Thailand is a big concern for us…We intend to cooperate in whatever way we can so that together we can help reduce the situation.”  (Comment - The implication of his remarks, as well as follow-on comments from the Foreign Ministry indicate that the Malaysian government is now viewing the situation in Southern Thailand as a developing threat to Malaysia, and are becoming increasingly concerned that the area will evolve into a focal point for regional and international terrorist organizations.)

There was confusion throughout the week as to whether the Thai government had invited Malaysia to assist in mediating the conflict. Press statements from Kuala Lumpur seemed to indicate that this was the case; however, the Thai Foreign Minister quickly responded that no such request had been made. The situation was clarified on 16 February when Thai PM Surayud confirmed that Malaysia would be involved in a dialog with the insurgents because it was “the best way to restore peace”. The details surrounding this future dialog have yet to established. (Comment – In late 2005, unofficial talks set up by former PM Mahathir Mohammad were held Langkawi, Malaysia, where southern Thai insurgent leaders met with Thai military and intelligence officials. The talks failed to bear fruit, as it become evident that the invited older generation of separatist leaders lack ties to the new generation of militants, and thus, were unable to exert discernable influence on the insurgents. The most positive outcome of those talks may have been this very realization – that a different approach was needed, and that those whom had been the core of the separatist movement in the 1970’s and 1980’s were out of touch with the militants of today. The Thai government, since the September 2006, has taken a new tact, with PM Surayud and Army Command Sonthi, himself a Muslim, acknowledging past mistakes and stating that a ham-fisted security force approach alone is not going to win over a population that feels it has been left behind and is discriminated against by Thailand’s Buddhist majority.  Malaysia brings excellent credentials to any negotiations, especially in light of its just turned over leadership role in the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC), and in  providing the forum which has generated recent progress in ongoing talks between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). The emphasis placed by both Thai and the Malaysian government officials on economic development and increasing educational opportunities in Southern Thailand has been noted by academics and security analysts as seemingly the right track. Combined with Thai government and military civil affairs projects, and better coordinated, limited military-police targeted tactical operations, it may be enough to begin to turn the corner. The Lunar New Year bombings, while once again demonstrating there is an organized and coordinated insurgency operating in the Thailand’s southern provinces, should not been seen as a strategic failure, but instead, as a tactical setback. The Thai military leadership and the post-coup government seem to have a much clearer picture of the insurgency than did the Thaksin administration and appear to be saying and doing the right things, and moving in the correct direction. However, change is not going to take place quickly, and progress will have to be measured in years not months, and furthermore, there will be many more setbacks such as today’s bombings, but it is possible an important corner has been turned.) [slr]