News and Analysis: Burma – Fuel Hike Protests: 1988 Redux? (26 Aug 2007)

Without notice Burma’s State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) unexpectedly lifted government subsidies on fuel, increasing the cost to consumers in some cases upwards of 500 percent in a single day. In addition to having an immediate impact on transportation associated businesses such as buses and trucking, the fuel hike caused a ripple effect that ran through local markets, increasing the costs of food items anywhere from 10 to 50 percent. With inflation already a problem, especially in the capital, the impact of the price increases were immediately felt countrywide. Burmese citizens are largely regarded as one of the region’s poorest. According to World Bank statistics for 2005, Burma’s annual gross national income on a per capita basis was approximately $580.00 USD’s, and worse, there are many laborers who earn far less than the national average. If prices continue to rise, they will be susceptible to falling below the subsistence level. The SPDC has been under pressure from international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to implement financial reform measures, including reducing a number of government subsidies in order to alleviate Burma’s growing debt, but last week’s sudden increase was a surprise to all.

Reacting to the fuel hike, small protests were held in the capital, Rangoon, staring on Sunday, 19 August and continuing throughout the week on Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday. While far from a mass mobilization, with the largest protest numbering only upwards of 400 persons on Sunday and down to around 40 persons on Thursday, the protests still represented a shift in the Burmese political landscape where criticism of any nature is not tolerated by the ruling military government. A protest was also reportedly held in the upcountry oil producing town of Yaynang Chaung. Any sort of anti-government expression outside the capital has been almost unheard of over the last 18 years. In Rangoon, the SPDC reacted quickly to the demonstrations, arresting some 65 activists, including two prominent individuals associated with Burma’s pro-democracy movement, Paw Oo Tun, (aka Min Ko Naing, Conqueror of Kings) and Ko Ko Gyi. (Mon Ko Naing spent 15 years in the Burmese prison system from 1989 to 2004 and was rearrested and held for a short time late last year.) While the focus of the demonstration was ostensively economic, it does appear that the main rally organizers were all political activists. On Friday, there was a little give on the SPDC’s part as the government ordered some bus companies to lower their fares from the highs seen earlier in the week. Saturday, all was quiet but there was a large Burmese security presence in Rangoon that was prepared to quickly react in order to shut down the first hint of dissidence.

(Comment: It is important to note that the protests were not a spontaneous reaction by the general population to the fuel hikes, but appear for the most part to have been an organized effort spurred by the pro-democracy activist leadership associated with the Group 88 Generation Students and members of the National League for Democracy to use the weakness of the Burmese economy and the poor judgment of the SPDC as a lever against the government. Both the activists and the government are fully cognizant that the 1988 popular uprising that almost brought down Burma’s military government began over abrupt economic changes brought about by the government. Burmese political activists hope to use the no warning fuel price hike to visibly demonstrate the insensitivity of the SPDC to needs of the people and to harness the economic plight of Burma’s poor to generate mass support against the military junta, something that for the last 18 years they have not been able to accomplish. They objective appears to be to light a spark, which they hope will ignite massive anti-government street demonstrations. These demonstrations would likely cause the SPDC to overreact, and would illuminate the pro-democracy struggle clearly in the international spotlight. However, at least over the last week, the protests have failed to blossom to a threatening level and the Burmese government appears to have contained any sort of broadening of support among the country’s and the capital’s population. On the other hand, it is poor decisions like the one taken last week -- a complete failure on the part of the SPDC to socialize the necessity of eliminating fuel and other subsidies or to take any sort of measures to offset its adverse effects on the country’s vulnerable population that could very well work to undermine its very foundation and provide the opening that pro-democracy advocates are so heroically working to gain.) [slr]