News and Analysis, 9 December 2006 - Aceh Elections and GAM

After three decades of fighting centered around the issue of Aceh’s independence from Indonesia, on Monday 11 December, Aceh will hold its first ever direct vote for provincial governor and deputy governor, as well as 19 mayors. After decades of separatist violence that caused an estimated 15,000 deaths since 1976, it took the devastating effect of the 2004 tsunami to create the impetus to forge an agreement between the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) and the Indonesian government. With the world’s and Indonesia’s attention focused on Aceh’s long-term recovery, a settlement became possible, and an agreement between the two parties was signed in Helsinki, August 2005. This agreement and its subsequent approval in the Indonesian national legislature laid the foundation for tomorrow’s election.

The eight principal candidates listed below will are running for office: the first name as governor and the second as deputy, followed by their political party affiliation:

Malek Raden and Sayed Zakaria (GOLKAR/PD/PDI-P/PKP/JKT)

Irwandi Yusuf and Muhammad Nazar (Independent/GAM/SIRA)

Humam Hamid and Hasbi Abdullah (PPP/GAM)

Tamlicha Ali and Armen Nuriqmar (PBR/PKB/PPNUI/MIL)

Iskandar Husein and Saleh Manaf (PBB/KOALISI)

Djali Yusuf and RA Syauqas Rahmatillah (Independent/MIL)

Ghazali Abbas Adan and Shalahuddin al-Fata (Independent)

Azwar Abubakar and Nasir Djamil Sag (PAN/PKS)

The two main candidates with solid GAM credentials are Humam Hamid and Irwandi Yusuf, the first representing the GAM old guard, who have been politically centered in Sweden over the years, and the later representing the more domestically rooted young turks, thus splitting the GAM vote. (Comment – It is important that no matter which individual wins the elections that the people of Aceh, and especially former GAM combatants, feel that they will have a voice, not only in the formation of the provincial government, but are also in the future political, social, and cultural trajectory of the province. Additionally, if the peace is going to last, this popular voice will need to be combined with trust on the part of the Indonesian government, and particularly the security forces, that the election will not propel Aceh on a path towards independence, a obvious Jakarta redline.) Those monitoring the election believe that tomorrow’s vote will not likely lead to victory by any one candidate as none will be able to reach the 25 percent winning threshold for the election and that a runoff will be necessary. (Comment - Two possible outcomes of a runoff are – one, that this will help more clearly distill the issues and the differences between candidates, especially in the controversial areas such as the use of wealth derived from Aceh’s significant natural resources, and the imposition of Islamic law, Shariah. Secondly, a runoff could prove to be divisive as protocols, procedures, and further campaigning could further open old wounds and sow confusion in the electorate, leading to election violence that up to this point has been minimal.)  Whatever the outcome, Aceh has moved a long way forward over the last 18 months in finding a peaceful solution to a conflict that has troubled the region on and off for the last 30 years. [slr]