News and Analysis (21 January 2007) – AFP’s Operation Ultimatum Making Significant Strides Against the Abu Sayyaf Group

Four month long combined-joint Operation Ultimatum involving some 7,000 Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) military personnel and supported by the United States Joint Special Operations Task Force – Philippines (JSOTF-P) has the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) on the run. This week the FBI confirmed through the use of DNA the death of former ASG leader Khadaffy Janjalani. Janjalani was wounded in a firefight with the AFP forces on 5 September, and later died, being buried in a shallow grave discovered by Filipino troops. His death, however, could not be positively confirmed until DNA testing was completed. In addition to Janjalani, ASG second in command, operations officer and oftentimes spokesman Jainal Antel Sali Jr., AKA Abu Solaiman, was killed by Philippines special forces on 16 January. President Arroyo stated that the death of these two leaders is the “mortal turning point for the Abu Sayyaf.” (Comment – The confirmed death of Janjalani and this week’s fatal shooting of Abu Solaiman will no doubt degrade the operational capability of the ASG. In addition to delivering a severe blow to the morale of the rebels, the next tier of leadership likely does not have the quality of external connections that are needed to deliver the same levels of funds and military supplies. Under seemingly unrelenting pressure from the AFP, the ASG also does not have the time or opportunity to regroup, consolidate, and conduct coordinated deliberate planning. They now appear to be reduced to small disconnected bands fighting independently of one another.  Although separated and disjointed in the area of command and control, these bands still represent a threat and given their past history will attempt to strike back against civilian targets in order to retaliate for their recent losses. This sort of tactical action though will not win back for them the operational and strategic advantage that now rests with the AFP. It is probable the leadership helm for the ASG will pass to Radulan Sahiron, a former Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) commander. His ability to actually exert positive, hands-on command, however, is limited due to his age (in his 70’s) and his health -- he is reportedly beset by numerous aliments such as arthritis and diabetes.  Other potential candidates for leadership are Isnilon Hapilon, AKA Abu Musab, commanding 20-30 rebels, and Dr. Abu Pula commanding 50-70 rebels, both former MNLF fighters. Due to sustain AFP combat operations the total strength of the ASG is now estimated to be around 300, attrited down from a high of approximately 1,000 fighters in the year 2000.) [slr]