News and Analysis - 02 December 2006 Thailand – Continued Violence Results in Massive School Closures

Thailand: Small scale attacks continued this week across Southern Thailand affecting Narathiwat, Yala, and Pattani Provinces. Significantly, arson attacks against schools resulted in the closure of 96 schools in Yala and 336 in Pattani. Since January 2004, at least 60 educators have been killed in the ongoing conflict. (Comment: The targeting of schools and educators represents an effort to strike fear and uncertainly in the local Buddhist minority while discrediting the government and security forces. The long-term goal appears to be to drive the Buddhists out of the south and to gain enough concessions from the Thai government to ensure that Malay culture, language, and Shariah law are imbedded and are dominate throughout the region. The strategic plan of the post-coup government of PM Surayud Chulanont has been to approach the problem of the Southern insurgency by giving the Army back a greater role in the tactical arena while simultaneously initiating discussions with known separatist groups, to include representatives of the Gerakan Mujuhideen Islam Pattani, Pattani United Liberation Organization (PULO), and Barisan Revolusi National (BRN). These talks, so far, have not manifested in any improvement to the security situation. One answer may be that the legacy groups mentioned above, though still active, do not seem to maintain control, or have great influence over the new generation of insurgents in the South. This new generation appears not to be organized along traditional lines and is likely centered at the village level with peers and relatives acting together as small cells, coming together to mount a limited attack and then dissipating, quickly merging back into the general populace. Older members of the legacy groups most likely are responsible for supplying explosives, weapons, and ammunition, conducting limited informal training and mentoring these younger insurgents. Talks between government and military officials and the legacy groups need to be continued, but it should be understood that results will not come quickly and any agreements made will have to filter down to the village level and gain buy in from the local leadership. Even then, many of these younger generation insurgents will remain independent, and for the near-term, will consider anything less than a separatist Islamic state in the South as unacceptable.) [slr]