News and Analsysis - East Timor – Unrest Persists, 11 Mar 07

East Timor: In the aftermath of the failed attempt by Australian military forces to capture renegade Major Alfredo Reinaldo, stone throwing gangs roamed the streets of Dili and expressed their discontent with the government decision to use force. In a few incidents, these gangs attacked an Australian owned restaurant, demonstrated in front of the Australian embassy, and vandalized and looted the homes of President Xanana Gusmao’s sisters. At least 15 were arrested and a strong military and police presence is being maintained across the city. Hundreds of supporters of Major Reinaldo also rallied around the village of Same, south of Dili, where he escaped last week’s assault. The Australians and other International Security Forces continue to conduct a manhunt in order to recapture Reinaldo, who escaped from the Dili prison last August. The Australian Herald Sun quoted UN Spokesperson, Allison Cooper as stating, “While the security situation in the country was fragile and volatile, it was not uncontrollable.” As a precautionary measure, the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) authorized a voluntary departure of dependents and all non-essential embassy personnel from the Dili Mission. The violence also prompted DFAF to issue a travel advisory on 6 March that in part read, “There have been continuing incidents of gang related violence, robbery, arson and vandalism in Dili. Australians and other foreigners have been caught up in recent incidents of armed robbery and assault. Some gangs in Dili have attacked cars with potentially lethal stones and darts fired from slingshots, particularly during the early evening and at night….East Timor is moving towards a period of elections, beginning with the Presidential elections on 9 April 2007. This could lead to a heightened phase of demonstrations and other public protest activity which could turn violent and deteriorate without warning.” President Gusmao responded to the continuing unrest by giving a televised address on 5 March in which he said that, “The State will use all legal means, including force, to stop the violence and prevent the destruction of property and killing and to restore law and order.” He further seemed to hint that if the violence was not brought under control, he would consider other measures, leading some analysts to believe that he was thinking about implementing an emergency degree.

(Comment – With Major Reinaldo still at large and less than 30 days until East Timor’s presidential election, tensions are likely to remain high and risk of further violence and unrest is likely. Former Interior Minister Rogerio Lobato’s sentencing this week to a seven and one-half year prison term on one hand will make it easier to negotiate a surrender for Major Reinaldo, but on the other hand, since Lobato remains the Deputy Chairman of East Timor’s largest political party FRETILIN, his sentencing further fractionalizes the political landscape as the election nears. What is unclear is the short and mid-term effect on East Timor – Australian relations, as there seems to be a rising ground swell of anti-Australian sentiment among a growing number of East Timorese, especially with the East Timorese youth. [slr]