News and Analysis: Cambodia – As Campaigning Begins for Communal Elections, Prince Ranariddh is Sidelined by Legal Issues (18 Mar 2007)

Campaigning began this week for Cambodia’s communal elections, scheduled to be held the first of April. The communal elections, the second in Cambodia’s history are important not only for the election of local level commune leaders, but will also serve as an azimuth of political trajectories in advance of next year’s general elections. According to the National Election Committee, 102,266 candidates will compete for 11,353 seats in 1,621 communes. (Councils range from 5 to 11 positions in each commune.) The Cambodian Peoples Party (CPP) has fielded the most candidates competing in all communes. The Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) will compete in 1,596 communes, the FUNCINPEC party in 1,460, and the Norodom Ranariddh Party (NRP) in 1,431. Due to a climate of stagnation and perceived corruption, with apparent support and prodding of the dissent faction by Prime Ministers Hun Sen’s CPP, Prince Norodom Ranariddh was ousted from the leadership of the FUNCINPEC party in late 2006 and forced to leave. He subsequently established his own party, thus splitting the second largest party in Cambodian politics. The Prince attempted to rally royalist supporters to his banner, but he was hindered in this effort due to being the target of two major legal assaults, and his own unwillingness to spend less time abroad. His legal woes result from his sentence in absentia on 13 March to 18-months in prison and a fine of $150,000 for a breach of trust associated with the sale of FUNCINPEC headquarters. The conviction and subsequent sentencing effectively prevent him from returning to Cambodia to campaign in the election, and without a royal pardon from Cambodia’s King Sihamoni, may rule out his running for political office in the 2008 general elections. Additionally, the prosecutor of the Phnom Penh Municipal Court has formally charged Prince Ranariddh with adultery for his alleged affair with former royal ballet dancer Ouk Phala while still being married to Princess Marie. (Ranariddh has one child by Ouk Phala and three with Princess Marie.) Adultery was recently made a crime with the passage of a Monogamy Law by the Cambodian Parliament. (Comment – Faced with his court conviction and the additional charge of criminal adultery, it is highly improbable that Prince Ranariddh will return to Cambodia in time to campaign on his party’s behalf in the communal elections. Due to name recognition and the personal nature of Cambodian politics, this will seriously disadvantage his NRP. The outcome of a poor showing by the NRP will likely benefit both the SRP and FUNCINPEC. During the last general election in 2003, the SRP was able to draw a number of voters away from the old Ranariddh headed FUNCINPEC and this trend can be expected to continue. The best estimate at this point for the communal election outcome will be a decisive win by the CPP but with the SRP finishing in the number two spot with the second total number of commune chief and council member positions. What is unclear is how the pre-split FUNCINPEC vote will go -- whether supporters will follow the Norodom name, even in his absence and vote for NRP, will stay with the FUNCINPEC, or become frustrated, abandoning both parties in mass and throwing their support behind Sam Rainsy.) [slr]